Monday, February 18, 2008

Bubble Economy Endgame

Source: Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Boomers counting on their home as their retirement now have to worry about saving rather than spending. Social attitudes towards consumption are changing slowly but surely. Those changing attitudes are exactly why Things That "Can't" Happen, will happen.

Because each season is long, up to 25 years, by the time Winter is about to hit, it's been 75 years since there has been deflation. That length of times causes people to think deflation will never happen again. The biggest manifestation this time was the widespread belief "Home Prices Always Go Up". That belief has now been shattered. Somehow, people still believe in the Fed.

Faith In The Fed Is The Last Bubble

The last remaining bubble is faith in the Fed's ability to inflate.

"Door Number Two" was a very well written rebuttal. Unfortunately, the rebuttal was based on a strawman that does not exist. The initial flaw was that no agreement was reached on critical definitions. A major subsequent flaw is the assumption that deflationistas in general have been wrong about gold. Finally, the "Door Number Two" post shows that even after all this time the inflationistas somehow do not understand what the deflationistas have been saying, even when it is spelled out point by point."

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