'The Take' Argentina

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December COMEX potential failure - Gold $2000 in a day

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“Liquidity Trap” Bermuda Triangle...

Nouriel Roubini

The Deadly Dirty D-Words: “Deflation”, “Debt Deflation” and “Defaults”. And How
Central Banks Will Have to Resort to “Crazy” Policies as We Have Reached Such
Bermuda Triangle of a “Liquidity Trap”

Nouriel
Roubini Nov 21, 2008

I have been warning since January 2008 that the biggest risk ahead for the US and the global economy is one of a stag-deflation, the deadly combination of an economic
stagnation/recession and deflation. Let me discuss the details of this toxic mixture of deflation, liquidity trap, debt deflation and rising household and corporate defaults:

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Μια ανάσα για να «πτωχεύσουμε»!

Αναδημοσίευση από: Ισοτιμία

ΤΟΥ Δ. Γ. ΠΑΠΑΔΟΚΩΣΤΟΠΟΥΛΟΥ

Tα κράτη δεν πτωχεύουν· μέχρι να πτωχεύσουν. Η Ισλανδία πρόσφατα εισήλθε στον προθάλαμο της κόλασης και η Ελλάδα πλέον δυσκολεύεται να δανειστεί.

Τα spread των ελληνικών ομολόγων αυξάνονται και το Δημόσιο αρχίζει να επανεξετάζει μεθόδους δανεισμού, που χρησιμοποιούσε προ δεκαπενταετίας.

Οι πληροφορίες λένε ότι από τη νέα χρονιά θα αρχίσουν και πάλι να εκδίδονται ομόλογα γραμμάτια τρίμηνης, εξάμηνης και δωδεκάμηνης διάρκειας. Οι συγκεκριμένες εκδόσεις είχαν περιοριστεί σημαντικά τα τελευταία χρόνια, καθώς ο Οργανισμός Διαχείρισης Δημοσίου Χρέους (ΟΔΔΗΧ) δούλευε το σύστημα με τις δημοπρασίες. Οι ξένοι επενδυτές ζητάνε όλο και μεγαλύτερα spread για να αγοράσουν ελληνικά ομόλογα, ενώ ταυτόχρονα περιορίζεται το ενδιαφέρον τους γι’ αυτά. Το ευρώ αποτελεί ασπίδα προστασίας για την Ελλάδα, αλλά σε οριακές καταστάσεις είναι ξεκάθαρο ότι οι ξένοι επενδυτές θα προτιμήσουν χώρες της Ευρωζώνης με μικρότερο χρέος απ’ αυτό που έχει η δική μας.

Η χώρα μας «πληρώνει» σήμερα το τεράστιο δημόσιο χρέος, που αγγίζει τα 250 δισ. ευρώ και αυγαταίνει συνεχώς, είτε με συντηρητικές είτε με σοσιαλιστικές κυβερνήσεις. Η Ελλάδα χρειάζεται ετησίως περίπου 40 δισ. ευρώ για την αναχρηματοδότηση του χρέους της.

Το ποσό αυτό αντλούνταν από τις χρηματαγορές του ευρώ. Μέχρι και πριν από την κρίση, τα στελέχη του ΟΔΔΗΧ αρέσκονταν ν’ αναφέρονται στην τεράστια ρευστότητα που έκανε πολλές τράπεζες να έρχονται στην Ελλάδα και να ζητάνε από μόνες τους να μας δανείσουν.

Μνήμες ’90

Τώρα όλα αυτά αποτελούν αναμνήσεις μιας άλλης εποχής. Τη θέση τους έχει πάρει το άγχος του δανεισμού, που θυμίζει έντονα τα πρώτα χρόνια της δεκαετίας του ‘90. Στο Υπουργείο Οικονομίας αλλά και στον ΟΔΔΗΧ, αναγνωρίζουν τώρα την ανάγκη να κινηθεί η Ελλάδα προς αναζήτηση κεφαλαίων και σε αγορές της Άπω Ανατολής, όπως η ιαπωνική.

Η Ελλάδα μέχρι τα μέσα της δεκαετίας του ‘90 συνήπτε συχνά κοινοπρακτικά δάνεια στην αγορά αυτή. Οι εξελίξεις αρχίζουν να γίνονται σύνθετες και για το οικονομικό επιτελείο παραμένει μείζον ζήτημα το θέμα των τραπεζών και της βοήθειας των 28 δισ. ευρώ. Ο Γιώργος Αλογοσκούφης είναι πλέον φανερά κουρασμένος από την αμφισβήτηση που εγείρεται ως προς το πρόσωπό του εντός της ΝΔ και αναζητά ενδομύχως μια έξοδο.

Ο Κώστας Καραμανλής, που προκάλεσε πρόωρες εκλογές το 2007 (με πρόσχημα το «προβληματικό» 2008), φαίνεται να δυσκολεύεται να παρακολουθήσει και να συνδυάσει τα τεκταινόμενα. Στον αντίποδα, ο αντιπολιτευτικός λόγος του ΠΑΣΟΚ δύσκολα θα μπορούσε να ισχυριστεί κάποιος ότι περιέχει συνεκτικές λύσεις για την κρίση. Στο ΠΑΣΟΚ μέχρι πρόσφατα εμφανίζονταν να αγνοούν ότι υπάρχει κρίση και αντιδρούσαν στα επισυμβαινόμενα, καταλογίζοντας ευθύνες στην κυβέρνηση, τη στιγμή κατά την οποία ένα ολόκληρο διεθνές οικονομικό σύστημα κατέρρεε.

Αλλαγή σκηνικού

ΤΟ ΕΝΔΕΧΟΜΕΝΟ το 2009 να κατακλύσει την ελληνική αγορά κύμα απολύσεων, προκαλεί τρόμο στην κυβέρνηση. Το ΕΒΕΑ κάνει λόγο για σημαντική κάμψη της αγοράς το επόμενο έτος και ο επικεφαλής του Κωνσταντίνος Μίχαλος προαναγγέλλει κλείσιμο επιχειρήσεων και απολύσεις προσωπικού. Ο υφυπουργός Οικονομικών Γιάννης Παπαθανασίου επιχειρεί το τελευταίο διάστημα να δεσμεύσει 2 δισ. ευρώ από το Δ΄ ΚΠΣ (ΕΣΠΑ στην καθομιλουμένη), τα οποία θα μοιραστούν μέσω του Προγράμματος Ανταγωνιστικότητας στις μικρές και μεσαίες επιχειρήσεις. Το εν λόγω πρόγραμμα μεταφέρει ήδη 2 δισ. στις ΜΜΕ, ενώ αν εγκριθούν από την Ε.Ε. και οι πρόσθετες πιστώσεις, τότε το συνολικό ποσό που θα διατεθεί μέσω του Προγράμματος Ανταγωνιστικότητας θα ανέλθει σε 4 δισ. ευρώ. Μέχρι τώρα η κοινοτική συνδρομή δινόταν σε επιχειρήσεις που εμφάνιζαν κερδοφόρες τις τρεις τελευταίες χρήσεις. Τώρα αυτή η πολιτική αλλάζει· τα χρήματα θα διατίθενται και σε επιχειρήσεις με ζημιογόνες χρήσεις.

Όπως δημοσιεύεται στην «Ι» της 22/11/2008

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Πόσο κρατικό δανεισμό αντέχουμε;

Αναδημοσίευση από: Ναυτεμπορική

Σαν να μην έχει αλλάξει τίποτε στο διεθνές οικονομικό στερέωμα, η κυβέρνηση σχεδιάζει να δανεισθεί 43 δισ. ευρώ το επόμενο έτος, όσα δηλαδή και εφέτος. Τι και αν το spread που πρέπει να πληρώνουμε ως χώρα για το δημόσιο δανεισμό μας, κινείται μεταξύ των 150 και 170 μονάδων βάσης;

Να σημειωθεί ότι, όταν το spread για το δανεισμό της χρεοκοπημένης πλέον τράπεζας των ΗΠΑ, Fannie Mae, έφτασε στο 40-50, παρενέβη το αμερικανικό Δημόσιο για να τη στηρίξει. Εμείς με το 170 δεν φοβόμαστε τίποτε; Επιτέλους τι πρέπει να γίνει για να καταλάβει το ελληνικό
κράτος, ότι δεν μπορεί να συνεχίσει να ξοδεύει περισσότερα από τα εισοδήματά του;
Μάλιστα εκεί που έχουν φθάσει τα πράγματα, αν το ελληνικό Δημόσιο
επιχειρήσει να ασκήσει το κυριαρχικό δικαίωμά του, να υποχρεώσει δηλαδή την κοινωνία σε εκχώρηση περισσότερων πόρων, θα εισπράξει μάλλον άρνηση ή αδυναμία.

Επιπλέον να σημειώσουμε ότι είναι πολύ πιθανό ο προγραμματιζόμενος δανεισμός των 43 δισ. ευρώ για τον επόμενο χρόνο, μάλλον να μην επαρκέσει. Το ίδιο συνέβη και φέτος, οπότε ο σχεδιασμός ήταν μέχρι 35 δισ. και έφθασε στα 43 δισ. ευρώ.

Δυστυχώς, ο δημόσιος δανεισμός δεν αφορά μόνο
την ανακύκλωση των παλιών χρεών, αλλά καλύπτει και τρέχοντα ελλείμματα. Και τούτο χωρίς να αναφέρουμε τίποτε για τις «μαύρες» τρύπες των νοσοκομείων και των ασφαλιστικών ταμείων, που θα αυξήσουν περαιτέρω τις δανειακές υποχρεώσεις του Δημοσίου. Σε όλα αυτά θα πρέπει δε να προστεθούν και οι εγγυήσεις του ελληνικού
κράτους και η ρευστότητα που θα χορηγηθεί στις τράπεζες, μέσω του σχεδίου των 28 δισ. ευρώ, η υλοποίηση του οποίου ξεκινά άμεσα.

Οσον αφορά τους τόκους, οι οποίοι καταβάλλονται ως τρέχουσα δαπάνη από τον προϋπολογισμό, θα φθάσουν το 2009 στα 12 δισ. ευρώ. Ούτε όλες οι εισπράξεις από τον ΦΠΑ δεν θα αγγίξουν τα 12 δισ. το επόμενο έτος. Στην αρχαία Αθήνα όποιος πρότεινε νόμο που ζημίωνε το κράτος, πλήρωνε τη ζημιά από την προσωπική του περιουσία. Αλήθεια, έχουμε κάποια σχέση με αυτούς τους ανθρώπους;

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Global systemic crisis Alert - Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt

Source: GEAB

In this 28th edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has decided to launch a new global systemic crisis alert. Indeed our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and be prevented to pay back its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds, of Fanny May and Freddy Mac shares, etc.). Of course such a bankruptcy will provoke some very negative outcome for all USD-denominated asset holders. According to our team, the period that will then begin should be conducive to the setting up of a « new Dollar » to remedy the problem of default and of induced massive capital drain from the US. The process will result from the following five factors studied in detail further in this GEAB:

• The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets • Thanks to its recent « political baptism », the Euro becomes a credible « safe haven » value and therefore provides a « crisis » alternative to the US dollar

• The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably

• The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country's defaulting

• « Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009? », that is the only question. Studying the case of Iceland can give an idea of the upcoming stages of the crisis. That is what our team has been doing ever since the beginning of 2006. This country indeed provides a good illustration of what the US and the UK should be expecting. It can be considered – and that is what most Icelandic people do today – that the collapse of Iceland's financial system came from the fact that it was disproportionate to the size of the country's economy.

Inflation in Iceland - 2003-2008 - Source Central Bank of Iceland

Financially speaking, Iceland thought of itself as UK (1), in the same way as, financially speaking, UK thought of itself as the US and the US thought of themselves as the entire world. It is therefore quite useful to study the case of Iceland (2) in order to understand the course of events that London and Washington will follow in the next 12 months (3). What we see today is a double historical phenomenon: . on the one hand, since September 2008 (as anticipated in the February 2008 edition of the GEAB - N°22), the whole planet has become aware that a global systemic crisis is unfolding, characterised by the collapse of the US financial system and its contagion to the rest of the world. . on the other hand, a growing number of global players are beginning to act on their own, in reaction to the ineffectiveness of the measures advocated or implemented by the US though they are the centre of this global financial system.

What happened with this first Euroland (or Eurozone summit which took place on Sunday, October 12, 2008, and whose decisions, by their scope (close to 1,700-billion EUR) and their nature (4), resulted in a regain of confidence on financial markets from all over the world, is typical of the « post-September 2008 world ».

Map of deposit insurances in the EU - Source AFP - 10/09/2008

Indeed there is such a thing as a « post-September 2008 world ». According to our team, it is now clear that this past month will remain in the history books of the whole planet as the month when the global systemic crisis started; even if what is really at play is its decanting phase, the last of a series of four phases of the crisis described by LEAP/E2020 as early as June 2006 (5). As always when it comes to large human groups, the perception of change among the general public only occurs when change is already far on its way. As a matter of fact, September 2008 is the month when the « financial detonator » of the global systemic crisis exploded.

According to LEAP/E2020 indeed, this second semester 2008 is the time when « the world dives into the heart of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis » (6); which means for our researchers that, at the end of this semester, the world enters the « decanting phase » of the crisis, i.e. a phase when the outcome of the shock settles down. This phase is the longest (from 3 to 10 years, according to the country) and the one affecting the largest number of people and countries. It is also the phase when the components of new global equilibriums will start to appear, two of them being already described by LEAP/E2020 in this 28th edition of the GEAB in the graphic illustrations below (7).

Therefore, as we repeated it on and on since 2006, this crisis is far more important, in terms of impact and outcome, than the 1929 crisis. Historically, we are the very first players, witnesses and/or victims of a crisis affecting the whole planet, in a situation of unprecedented interdependence of countries (resulting from twenty years of globalisation) and people (the level of urbanization - and related dependence for all the basic needs – water, food, energy… - is also unprecedented).

However, the 1929 experience and all its dreadful outcome, is still vivid enough in our collective memories to hope, if citizens are vigilant and leaders clear-sighted, that we will be spared from a « remake » leading to major conflagration(s). Europe, Russia, China, Japan,... are certainly the collective players who can make sure that the unfolding implosion of today’s world power, i.e. the United States, does not drive the planet into a disaster. Indeed, except for Gorbachev’s USSR, empires have a tendency to strive in vain to reverse the course of History when they realize their might is escaping them. It then belongs to partner-powers to channel the process peacefully, as well as it belongs to the citizens and rulers of the concerned country to be clear-sighted and face the difficult times they are about to cross.

Total borrowings of US Depository Institutions from the US Federal Reserve (01/08/1986 – 10/09/2008) - Source Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
The « emergency repair » of international financial channels, achieved by the countries of the Eurozone at the beginning of this month of October 2008 (8), should not hide three fundamental facts:

• The “repair” was necessary to curb the panic that threatened to squander the entire global financial system in just a few weeks, but what it heals temporarily is merely a symptom. It has just bought a bit of time, two to three months maximum, as the global recession and the collapse of the US economy (the table above shows the staggering increase of US banks’ borrowings from the Fed) will speed up and create new tensions in the economic, social and political fields, that must be anticipated and coped with as soon as next month (as soon as the “financial packages” have been implemented)

• The huge financial means allocated worldwide for « emergency rescues » of the global financial system, though they were necessary to put back in order the system of credit, are lost for the real economy when it is on the verge of facing a global recession

• The « emergency repair » results in further marginalization, and therefore weakening, for the United States, because it sets up processes that are contrary to those advocated by Washington for the allocation of the Hank Paulson’s and Ben Bernanke’s 700-billion USD TARP: bank recapitalisation by governments (a decision Hank Paulson has now come to follow) and interbank loan guarantees (in fact Euroland governments substitute to credit insurers, a mostly American industry at the centre of global finance since decades). These trends turn more and more decision-making relays and financial flows away from the United-States when because of the explosion of their public (9) and private debt they need them more than ever; not to mention pensions going up in smoke (10). The last aspect shows how, in the coming months, solutions to the crisis and to its various sequences (financial, economic, social and political) will increasingly diverge: what is good for the rest of the world will not be good for the United States (11), and now, Euroland in the first place, the rest of the world seems determined to make its own choices. The sudden shock that will result from the US defaulting in summer 2009 is partly due to this decoupling of decision-making processes of the world’s largest economies with regard to the US. It is predictable and can be dampened if global players start to anticipate it. As a matter of fact, it is one of the topics developed in this 28th edition of the GEAB: LEAP/E2020 hopes that the September shock has “educated” the world’s political, economic and financial policy-makers and made them understand that it is easier to act by anticipation than in a panic. It would be a pity if Euroland, Asia and oil-producing countries, as well as US citizens of course, discover one morning of summer 2009 that, after a long-week-end or bank-holiday in the US, their US T-Bonds and Dollars are only worth 10 percent of their value because a « new Dollar » has just been imposed (12).
---------

Notes:

(1) Iceland adopted 10 years ago all the principles of economic deregulation and « financieration » advocated and implemented in the US and UK. Reykjavik thus became some sort of a financial « Mini-Me » of London and Washington, in reference to the very Americano-British movie character Austin Powers. The three countries undertook to play the financial game of « the frog that wished to be as big as the ox », in reference to a fable by Jean de la Fontaine with a very unhappy end for the frog.

(2) Icelandic stocks collapsed 76 percent after a few days suspension designed to « avoid » a panic! Source: MarketWatch, 10/14/2008

(3) On this subject, let's spend a few lines on the amount of the “financial package” announced by London, i.e. 640-billion EUR including 64-billion EUR to recapitalize banks and a further 320-billion EUR pay back those same banks’ debt (source: Financial Times, 10/09/2008). With an economy in freefall to the image of the real-estate market, with a soaring inflation, with capital-based pensions going up in smoke and a currency at the lowest,… apart from increasing the public debt and weakening even more the Sterling pound, it is difficult to imagine how the plan can « rescue » British banks. Contrary to Eurozone banks, the British financial system, exactly like its US counterpart, is at the centre of the crisis, not a collateral victim. Gordon Brown may well compare himself to Churchill and Roosevelt together (Source: Telegraph, 10/14/2008), in his ignorance of History, he seems to forget that neither Churchill nor Roosevelt had already spent 10 years in their country's governments when each of them had to cope with their « big crisis » (that goes for the US and the Bush administration – Paulson and Bernanke included - who all come from the problem and are certainly not part of the solution). Not to mention the fact that Churchill and Roosevelt organised summits such as Yalta or Tehran leaving the French and the Germans waiting at the door, while today it is him who waits at the door of the Euroland summit.

(4) Source: L'Express, 10/13/2008

(5) Source: GEAB N°5, May 15, 2006

(6) Source: GEAB N°26, June 15, 2008

(7) LEAP/E2020 made a synthesis of its anticipations on the decanting phase of the crisis by means of a world map of the impact of the crisis based on the identification of 6 large groups of countries; and of an anticipatory schedule of the 4 financial, economic, social and political sequences over 2008-2013 for each of these regions.

(8) It is indeed the Eurozone which curbed the spiral of global panic. For weeks, the US and British initiatives followed one another without any effect. The eruption of a new collective player, the « Euroland summit », and the wide-ranging decisions it made, are a new and soothing phenomenon. It is for this very reason that Washington and London have systematically prevented such a summit from taking place ever since the Euro was launched, 6 years ago. A complete set of diplomatic gesticulation was required (preliminary meeting, pre-summit group photo,…) to make the British Prime Minister believe he was not set aside the process, when in fact there is no reason why he should take part in a Euroland Summit. In this edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E202020 comes back on the phenomenon and the long-term systemic consequences of this 1st Euroland Summit.

(9) The US financial rescue plan has already increased by 17,000 USD the debt owned by each US citizen. Source: CommodityOnline, 10/06/2008

(10) It is indeed 2,000-billion USD of capital-based pensions which evaporated in the past few weeks in the US. Source: USAToday, 10/08/2008

(11) At least in the short-term. Indeed our team is convinced that it is not bad at all for the American people in the medium- and long-term if the system currently prevailing in Washington and New-York is fundamentally reappraised. This system has thrust the country into dramatic problems among which dozens of millions of US citizens now struggle, as illustrated in this article by the New York Times dated 10/11/2008.

(12) Even if it will be a minor-scale measure compared to the prospect of a US bankruptcy, those who think that it is time to invest again on financial markets may find useful to learn that the New York Stock Exchange has recently reviewed all its circuit-breaker thresholds as a result of ratings collapse. Source : NYSE/Euronext, 09/30/2008
Jeudi 16 Octobre 2008
In the same category:
Global systemic crisis – End of 2008: Pension funds go off the rails - 06/10/2008
The decisive six months to avoid a global recession: Five strategic advices for central banks, governments and other regulatory authorities - 30/09/2008
LEAP/2020: Global systemic crisis September 2008 - Special announcement - 24/09/2008
SEQUENCE 6 - 'Very Great Depression' in the US, social unrest and army's growing influence on public affairs (2nd quarter 2007 – 4th quarter 2009) - 24/08/2008
Traffic Info LEAP/E2020 - May 2008 - 12/05/2008
Special offer! Each new subscriber gets Special Edition 'GEAB/SUBPRIME CRISIS: Causes, development, consequences and strategic advice'... because an in-depth understanding is required to secure oneself - 12/08/2007
GEAB Archives Offer (1) - Six archive issues of your choice for 50 euros - 22/01/2007
French prospectivist, Pierre Gonod, analyses LEAP's work of anticipation - 30/08/2006

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Δολάριο ή χρυσός;

Αναδημοσίευση από: Ελευθεροτυπία

Η ΑΝΟΔΟΣ ΤΟΥ ΠΡΩΤΟΥ ΠΙΘΑΝΟΝ ΘΑ ΑΝΑΚΟΠΕΙ ΣΥΝΤΟΜΑ
ΚΑΙ ΘΑ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΗΣΕΙ Η ΑΥΞΗΣΗ ΤΙΜΗΣ ΤΟΥ ΔΕΥΤΕΡΟΥ
Δολάριο ή χρυσός;
Του Κ.
ΚΑΛΛΩΝΙΑΤΗ

Το τελευταίο 12μηνο που διαρκεί η χρηματοπιστωτική κρίση γκρεμίζονται οι τιμές όλων των αξιών, χάρτινων και εμπράγματων. Οι διεθνείς χρηματιστηριακές αγορές (βασικές μετοχές) πέφτουν 30-50%, οι δείκτες μετοχών των εταιρειών εξόρυξης πετρελαίου και πολύτιμων μετάλλων πέφτουν 45-50%, ο δείκτης εμπορευμάτων και το πετρέλαιο χάνουν 21% και 24% αντίστοιχα, η αγγλική λίρα και το ευρώ χάνουν 12% και 8% αντίστοιχα, ενώ ο χρυσός υποχωρεί 8%.

Μόνοι κερδισμένοι σε ετήσια βάση είναι το γεν (9%), το δολάριο (8%) και τα κρατικά ομόλογα (3% τα 30ετή των ΗΠΑ). Η μεγάλη αναστροφή για το χρυσό και το δολάριο προέκυψε στο τελευταίο 3μηνο, όταν ο χρυσός έχασε 22% σε δολάρια και το δολάριο ανατιμήθηκε 23% έναντι του ευρώ.

Το ερώτημα ανακύπτει, λοιπόν, το ερώτημα εάν το δολάριο αποτελεί το βασικό επενδυτικό καταφύγιο εν μέσω της κρίσης και γιατί ο χρυσός δεν επωφελείται απ' αυτήν. Η γενικευμένη πτώση στις τιμές των περιουσιακών στοιχείων (μην ξεχνάμε τα ακίνητα) και η στροφή σε ρευστά διαθέσιμα είναι το αποτέλεσμα της χρηματοπιστωτικής κρίσης, βασικό χαρακτηριστικό της οποίας είναι η προσπάθεια περιορισμού των υπερβολικών χρεών από τράπεζες, επιχειρήσεις και νοικοκυριά που είχαν συσσωρευτεί όλη την προηγούμενη δεκαετία της πιστωτικής φούσκας.

Ακριβώς, δε, επειδή η εκρηκτική νομισματική και πιστωτική επέκταση προήλθε κυρίως από τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες και την Ιαπωνία (βλ. χαμηλά έως μηδενικά επιτόκια και μηχανισμό carry trade), το συμμάζεμα και ο περιορισμός των χρεών που δημιουργήθηκαν στις χώρες αυτές σημαίνουν τη ρευστοποίηση και τον επαναπατρισμό των κεφαλαίων που τα χρέη αυτά επέτρεψαν να επενδυθούν σε εξωχώριες τοποθετήσεις.

Η ανάκαμψη, λοιπόν, του δολαρίου και του γεν δεν αποτελεί επενδυτική επιλογή έναντι της κρίσης, αλλά υποχρεωτική κίνηση ρευστοποίησης κερδοφόρων μέχρι προ τινος τίτλων σε άλλα νομίσματα για την κάλυψη ανειλημμένων δανειακών υποχρεώσεων σε δολάρια ή γεν. Είναι σύμπτωμα της κρίσης του διεθνούς νομισματικού συστήματος που έχει ως πυλώνα το δολάριο και όχι εκδήλωση της ισχύος του.

Ο χρυσός παρασύρθηκε από την πλημμυρίδα των ρευστοποιήσεων στην οποία κατέφυγαν οι θεσμικοί επενδυτές (τράπεζες, hudge funds κ.ά.), όμως έπεσε λιγότερο από τις περισσότερες άλλες τοποθετήσεις. Το ερώτημα, ωστόσο, παραμένει: πόσο ψηλά μπορεί να πάει το δολάριο και πόσο χαμηλά ακόμη μπορεί να πέσει ο χρυσός;Την απάντηση φρόντισε να δώσει το ίδιο το Fed όταν μέσα στους δύο τελευταίους μήνες φρόντισε να διπλασιάσει τον ισολογισμό του από 870 δισ. σε 1,7 τρισ.

Πρόκειται για μία πρωτοφανή έκρηξη στο ενεργητικό και τις πιστώσεις της Ομοσπονδιακής Τράπεζας των ΗΠΑ που πραγματοποιήθηκε στη διάρκεια διαμόρφωσης του προγράμματος διάσωσης και η οποία υποδηλώνει την απώλεια ελέγχου της αμερικανικής νομισματικής πολιτικής. Αυτή η πιστωτική επέκταση της κεντρικής τράπεζας των ΗΠΑ τροφοδοτεί τώρα την διψήφια αύξηση της προσφοράς χρήματος των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών.Αυτή η νομισματική επέκταση είναι έντονα πληθωριστική.

Με τους όγκους του νέου χρήματος που διοχετεύονται στις αγορές όχι μόνον επιδιώκεται η τροφοδότηση με ρευστότητα του «παγωμένου» από έλλειψη εμπιστοσύνης τραπεζικού συστήματος, αλλά και επιζητείται η ενίσχυση της ζήτησης και η ανακοπή της πτωτικής τάσης τιμών των περιουσιακών στοιχείων (ακινήτων, μετοχών, αμοιβαίων κ.λπ.). Γι' αυτό και το πιθανότερο είναι ο νομισματικός πληθωρισμός να συνεχισθεί μέχρις ότου υπάρξει αποτέλεσμα.Ανεξάρτητα από το ποια τάση θα υπερισχύσει τελικά (νομισματικός πληθωρισμός ή αποπληθωρισμός), το βέβαιο είναι πως θα μεταβληθούν οι σχετικές αξίες των νομισμάτων και προφανώς θα ζημιωθούν εκείνα τα νομίσματα στα οποία πραγματοποιείται η μεγαλύτερη επέκταση.

Το δολάριο όπως είναι γνωστό ανήκει σε αυτή την τελευταία κατηγορία. Η έλλειψη χρήματοςΤην έλλειψη δολαρίων που προκάλεσε η απροθυμία των τραπεζών να δανείσουν η μία την άλλη, καλύπτει πλέον το Fed με την αύξηση της προσφοράς χρήματος. Επειδή, όμως, η ανατίμηση του δολαρίου που προέκυψε από τις ρευστοποιήσεις ακολούθησε παραβολική τροχιά, ορισμένοι πιστεύουν ότι τις επόμενες 2-5 εβδομάδες το ράλι του δολαρίου θα ανακοπεί παραδίδοντας τα σκήπτρα στο χρυσό, με τον οποίο το αμερικανικό νόμισμα συσχετίζεται μακροχρονίως αρνητικά, όταν δηλαδή το ένα ανεβαίνει, το άλλο υποχωρεί.

Οσοι υποστηρίζουν αυτή την άποψη επικαλούνται ότι από τεχνική άποψη ο χρυσός βρίσκεται πολύ κοντά στη βάση του (730-750 δολάρια) και πιθανότατα θα προκαλέσει επενδυτικό ενδιαφέρον επειδή κανείς δεν πιστεύει ότι η διαδικασία της απομόχλευσης και της κρίσης έχει παρέλθει ανεπιστρεπτί και θα θέλει να διασφαλιστεί έναντι πιθανής νέας κάμψης των αγορών.

ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΑ - 26/10/2008

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Ludwig von Mises Inst.: How to Avoid Another Depression

Source: Ludwig von Mises Institute

How to Avoid Another Depression

Daily Article by Mark Thornton | Posted on 9/10/2008

"Great Depression" is a strong term, but what exactly does it mean? Depressions are a normal part of a business cycle that are now often called recessions, downturns, or corrections. They occur in any economy where the financial markets are based on fractional-reserve banking.

Depressions only become "great" when normal to severe depressions are used as excuses for massive increases in government intervention. Murray Rothbard's America's Great Depression clearly demonstrates this phenomenon. The three great depressions in the history of the United States are the Progressive Era (1907–1922), the Great Depression (1929–1945), and the Great Stagflation (1970–1982).

The year 2008 marks the beginning of the next recession, correction, or depression. All the statistical indicators are pointing in that direction. All market indicators point in that direction as well. Ask any noneconomist and you will get that same answer. We only have to wait for the folks at the National Bureau of Economic Research to officially confirm what we already know.

The reason for the depression is the bust in the housing market — we all know that too. Austrians reported on the housing bubble throughout the boom. Beginning in early 2003, Frank Shostak, Christopher Meyer, Lew Rockwell, Robert Blumen, Jeff Scott of Wells Fargo Bank, and others, including this author, were writing and lecturing about the housing bubble. We identified the cause of the bubble as the Federal Reserve and its inevitable consequences of a bust in the housing market and the overall economy.

Homebuilder stocks peaked in mid-2005 and it's been like watching a train wreck in slow motion ever since. When the overall stock market peaked one year ago we could finally celebrate the beginning of the correction phase of the business cycle even though most of us suspected it would be a severe one. Several mortgage dealers went bankrupt in 2007 and the increased number of foreclosures signaled that the correction was finally under way.

By late 2007 there were definite signs of major corrective forces acting in financial markets. However, whenever such corrections seemed to be ready to take place they were circumvented by government intervention. On December 12, 2007, the Fed announced the Term Auction Facility which would auction reserves at the Discount Window for a "broader range of counterparties" and against a "broader range of collateral" than open-market operations and without identifying the borrowers. This was the first extraordinary intervention.

Then in March, Paulson and Bernanke orchestrated the weekend purchase of Bear Sterns by J.P. Morgan, providing Morgan with a $30 billion, ten-year loan. This certainly was an extraordinary intervention. It also helped set a pattern of intervention that sends exactly the wrong signals to the market. Government officials at the Fed, Treasury, and elsewhere have been telling us that everything is fine in the economy and then, when bad economic news is announced, they claim that "it's not as bad as we anticipated." Then, when markets react to this misinformation, government comes in with some massive bailout in the form of a brand new, extraordinary intervention.

In July, Secretary Paulson told Congress that he saw no need for additional legislation to address problems at Fannie and Freddie and then, less than one week later, he announced that the Treasury would "backstop" the two megamortgage lenders. This essentially reversed what Treasury secretaries have been saying for decades, that they do not stand behind or guarantee the securities and debts and obligations of these government-sponsored entities.

Now an even more radical step by the Treasury has essentially nationalized Fannie and Freddie. Of course this does not help troubled homeowners or prospective buyers. It does not help homebuilders. Essentially, it hurts all those people because it puts them as taxpayers at risk for several trillion dollars in potential losses.

Most commentators think this takeover of Fannie and Freddie was the right thing to do: unfortunate, but necessary to prevent a financial crisis. This is all wrongheaded. It might delay a financial crisis, but it only makes the overall economic crisis even worse. History has well demonstrated that government intervention only lengthens the economic crisis and increases its overall cost. Just ask the Japanese about their experience.

Given the extraordinary nature of interventions that have been taken so far and the precedents that have been set, we have all the makings of the next great depression...

More:  Ludwig von Mises Institute 

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World Military Spending

Source: Global Issues

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The 'Japanification' of Wall Street

Source: Financial Times

The ‘Japanification’ of Wall Street

Some old Tokyo hands have that creeping feeling of déjà vu when they look across the Pacific at events in the US.

The unfolding crises at Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual – and before, , at Bear Stearns — have some eerily familiar patterns that evoke those days when Japan’s banks seemed physically incapable of calling a bad loan a “bad loan”, when absurd schemes were hatched in the belief they would reassure investors; and when the dead hand of Japanese bureaucracy seemed to be move silently, ninja-like, behind every financial crisis.

Of course there are always dangers in drawing parallels, not least because ultimately, no two situations are identical and the assumption that one can apply a solution from one problem to another – especially in the world of finance - can lead to both the wrong conclusions and the wrong remedy.

But at this point, some similarities are too striking to ignore, on how officials and executives in the west are approaching problems in today’s investment banking world – everywhere, from Germany to the US - compared with the attitude in Japan around the time of the bubble-era implosion and subsequent bank failures of the early 1990s.

In brief, first, you get denial – banks that were foundering insisting they were in a fine state of health. It’s a common - and, we suppose, understandable - syndrome: Why let your share price tank if you can support it with soothing words?

Then there is obfuscation, the stage at which weasel words, born of great creativity with the truth, are wheeled out – (a la “things are not necessarily going in our favour”). Think, Nippon Credit Bank, Long Term Credit Bank of Japan and – well, here’s a neat list to refresh the memory...

More: Financial Times

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Gold: 'Money and Markets'

Source: Money and Markets

With events changing daily ... with the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie ... with important news coming out almost hourly — I'm sure you're often wondering: "What does Larry think here? How do I make money in these crazy markets and economic environment?"

Indeed, I'm receiving more questions about the markets ... more doubts about the commodities bull market ... more inquiries about inflation versus deflation, than I have in years.

That's not surprising, considering the extreme, wild swings in the markets. Emotions are running deep. Confusion is everywhere. Even the most experienced investors and traders are having quite a spell with the current economic and market environment.

So I'm going to convey as many of my views as possible in this report ... and the reasons behind them. That way you'll know exactly what I'm thinking ... why ... and how to both protect your money and reap gobs of profits to boot.

I'll do it via questions and answers. So let's get started ...

Q: Larry, is the bull market in gold over?

A: No way, no how. What we've seen is merely a major pullback in gold, a healthy pullback that will renew the bull market and lead to much higher gold prices down the road.

My basis for that view ...

First, the charts and technical analysis. As you can see from this long-term chart on gold, the recent pullback has retraced less than one-third of gold's bull market gains since the low of $256 in February 2001.

Does it look to you like gold is in a bear market? Heck no!

Even if gold were to break the first uptrend line on that chart, it has major system support (not shown) between $735 and $763.

While it's true that gold has fallen a bit further and faster than I expected, that does not change the fact that the pullback is merely a retracement on the charts.

What to do about your gold investments?

For your core gold holdings, remember you are investing in gold for the long-term. And I believe gold is headed much higher. So it does not pay to try and side-step the correction. By trying to do so, you risk getting whipsawed by the market, and almost always end up paying more to get back in.

I recommend holding on to your core positions. And if gold declines any further, look to add to those positions.

For short-term trading, it's a different story. Make use of the stops I give you if you're following myReal Wealth Report. And if you are a subscriber to my trading services, don't be afraid to take my put option or inverse ETF recommendations to profit from short-term declines...

... Second, gold's inflation-adjusted price — $2,270 — has not yet been reached, indicating the price of gold can nearly TRIPLE from current levels.

If history is any guide, and I believe it is, then I hold that there is nearly a 100% certainty that gold will reach $2,270 before gold's bull market is over. And quite possibly, even higher!

Keep in mind that throughout history, asset classes always reach their inflation-adjusted price. They wax and wane, falling behind the inflation curve at times, and at other times, catching up and exceeding their inflation-adjusted prices.

That's true of all asset classes, be they bonds, stocks, commodities.

This is especially true in the post-1971 period when paper money's relationship with real money has been severed via the elimination of the gold standard.

Third, the bear market in the dollar, one of the principal forces behind gold's bull market, is not over. I'd like to believe that it is, but it's not — the dollar has much more to go on the downside.

You can see it in this long-term chart of the dollar index.

Notice how the index is merely bouncing back a tad. Yet it remains deeply embedded in a bear market and way below levels seen just last year.

In other words, the dollar's recent rally is nothing more than a bear market bounce.

Fundamentally, I believe the U.S. economy is much weaker than Europe's. While the euro zone is certainly having its problems, Europe is NOT the epicenter of the current crisis. The U.S. is.

Moreover, I have absolutely no doubts whatsoever that our Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, will do everything in its power to "inflate away" the debt and credit problems in the U.S. — by continuing to sacrifice the value of the dollar...

More: Money and Markets

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World War III Closer Than the Elections

Source: EIR Executive Intelligence Review

This editorial appears in the September 5, 2008 issue of Executive Intelligence Review.

World War III Closer Than the Elections

[PDF version of this article]

In a statement issued Aug. 21, former Democratic Presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche warned that the world is closer to World War III, than it is to the November Presidential elections in the United States. Nothing that happened in Denver during the Democratic Convention, or which is likely to happen during the Republican Convention this week, changes that reality.

"November is a far distance away," LaRouche said. "The world situation, and recent events, show that we are at the point of breakdown of the world system, and the threat of a thermonuclear World War III is immediate. The provocations against Russia, via George Soros and British intelligence's Saakashvili government in Georgia, are but one leading edge. Despite the focus on the Caucasus in the past weeks, the Iranian issue is very much on the table. Do not put it past Vice President Dick Cheney and his British controllers to orchestrate a major provocation there."

In fact, as LaRouche has stressed in subsequent statements, the British—for whom Cheney is simply a stooge—are determined to escalate their efforts against Russia in the immediate period ahead. The British, and the forces under their control, are locked into the same kind of mentality that characterized Robert McNamara and Gen. William Westmoreland on the eve of the Tet Offensive in January 1968. They are signalling their intent to escalate against Russia on all fronts, but have not faced the fact that, as with Tet, they cannot possibly win—although they could create a confrontation with thermonuclear implications.

Cheney's upcoming trip to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine, and Italy—to begin Sept. 2—threatens to be a major point of escalation in this lunatic onslaught against Russia. The Vice President, who bears primary responsibility, along with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, for having manipulated the Bush Administration into the disastrous Iraq War in 2003, is known to be hell-bent on provoking a new war, most likely against Iran, in the months before he leaves office. The confrontational stance which Cheney, Bush, and the British have taken against Russia, helps create the conditions for such an action, which would bring horrific results.

Unfortunately, both of the current Presidential candidates can, at present, be expected to fall in line with the British-steered provocation that could lead to a World War III confrontation between Russia and the United States. Obama's close ties with British agent Soros, who functions as a kind of godfather to the Saakashvili regime, make it unlikely he would break from the British script. In the case of John McCain, he is ideologically susceptible to precisely such a British-orchestrated provocation...

More: EIR Executive Intelligence Review

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