Saturday, January 31, 2009

Επειδή ο Έλληνας πληρώνει (τα μάτια που αγαπά)

Η ιστορία γνωστή, αλλά έχει και ενδιαφέρουσα συνέχεια...Ρίξτε μια ματιά στα δύο παρακάτω άρθρα...:

1) Standard & Poor’s: «Οι τράπεζες ίσως χρειαστούν ακόμη 8 δισ. ευρώ»

Στα 13 δισ. ευρώ (από 5 δισ. ευρώ σήμερα) ανεβάζουν οι αναλυτές του διεθνούς οίκου τις πιθανές ανάγκες κεφαλαιακής ενίσχυσης των ελληνικών τραπεζών 


Προτού ακόμα ολοκληρωθεί η ενίσχυση των ελληνικών τραπεζών με τα 28 δισ. ευρώ, ο διεθνής οίκος αξιολόγησης πιστοληπτικής ικανότητας Standard & Poor’s κάνει λόγο για ανάγκη περαιτέρω ενίσχυσής τους με άλλα 8 δισ. δολ.

Σε έκθεσή τους σχετικά με τις επιπτώσεις της κρίσης στα δημοσιονομικά μεγέθη των αναπτυγμένων οικονομιών, οι αναλυτές της S&P εκτιμούν ότι με τα σημερινά δεδομένα οι ελληνικές τράπεζες θα χρειαστούν κεφαλαιακή ενίσχυση ύψους 5 δισ. δολ. - ποσό που προβλέπεται στο «πακέτο» των 28 δισ. ευρώ.

Στην ίδια έκθεση, όμως, υπάρχει αναφορά και στο «χειρότερο σενάριο», σύμφωνα με το οποίο οι ελληνικές τράπεζες θα πρέπει να ενισχυθούν με 13 δισ. ευρώ. Αυξάνεται, έτσι, το απαιτούμενο ποσό από 2% σε 5,1% του ελληνικού ΑΕΠ. Στον βαθμό που η άποψη αυτή δικαιωθεί, η κυβέρνηση θα πρέπει να βρει τρόπο να δώσει άλλα 8 δισ. ευρώ στις τράπεζες...


http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=12336&subid=2&tag=12734&pubid=5195104


2) Ερωτήματα για τα 28 δισ.

 Ελληνικές τράπεζες, με έγκριση των Βρυξελλών, ενισχύουν με κρατικό χρήμα θυγατρικές τους στα Βαλκάνια, ενώ περιορίζουν τα δάνεια στο εσωτερικό


Το πράσινο φως για την ενίσχυση των θυγατρικών των τραπεζών στα Βαλκάνια με το ελληνικό πακέτο στήριξης των 28 δισ. ευρώ έδωσε χθες η Ε.Ε., τη στιγμή κατά την οποία στην Ελλάδα τα πιστωτικά ιδρύματα χορηγούν όλο και πιο δύσκολα δάνεια προς τις επιχειρήσεις και τα νοικοκυριά. Η εκπρόσωπος της Κομισιόν Αμέλια Τόρες δήλωσε χθες ότι τα σχέδια διάσωσης που έχουν υιοθετηθεί σε όλη την Ευρώπη αφορούν τους ομίλους στο σύνολό τους. Δηλαδή, τα κρατικά κεφάλαια μπορούν να χρησιμοποιηθούν και για τη χρηματοδότηση των θυγατρικών τους στο εξωτερικό.

Η δήλωση της κ. Τόρες έρχεται σε πλήρη αντίθεση με τη σύσταση που απηύθυνε προς τις τράπεζες ο διοικητής της Τραπέζης της Ελλάδος Γιώργος Προβόπουλος να μην «εξάγουν» τα κεφάλαια στήριξης στα Βαλκάνια, λόγω του κινδύνου που υπάρχει στις συγκεκριμένες αγορές. Σύμφωνα με τα στοιχεία της Τραπέζης της Ελλάδος, τον Δεκέμβριο χορηγήθηκαν δάνεια 2 δισ. ευρώ έναντι 5 δισ. ευρώ τον Δεκέμβριο του 2007.


ttp://news.kathimerini.gr/4dcgi/_w_articles_economy_1_30/01/2009_301444








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Monday, January 19, 2009

Χ.Α.: Σε ελεύθερη πτώση ο γενικός δείκτης


Κατακρημνίστηκε σήμερα ο γενικός δείκτης τιμών του Χ.Α., ο οποίος υποχώρησε στα χαμηλότερα επίπεδα από τον Απρίλιο του 2003.
Ο γενικός δείκτης έκλεισε στις 1.660,04 μονάδες, κοντά στο χαμηλότερο σημείο της ημέρας, σημειώνοντας κάθετη πτώση κατά 5,14%...
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Πήγα σε μάντισσες, σε χαρτορίχτρες...

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'The Bailout Game': πατήστε play

  :lol: 
'The Bailout Game': play



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American Freedom (Made in China...)






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'The End Game'

Source: Money and Markets


"The notion that the U.S. government might even contemplate such a Herculean task is so naive and so preposterous, it doesn't even rise to the level of B-grade science fiction."


by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.   01-19-09

Just a week after Wall Street was still rejoicing with a great “Obama rally”…

And only hours before the new president takes the oath of office …

A larger, more menacing banking disaster has burst onto the scene.

Why? The fundamental reason is obvious:

Back in September, when Wall Street’s largest firms were feared to be sick or dying, the financial epidemic was largely limited to Wall Street. Most of the broader economy was still holding up. Except for housing and mortgages, the contagion had not yet hit Main Street.

Now, just four months later, all that has changed. Unemployment has gone through the roof in almost every industry. Nonfinancial firms are failing in large numbers. The entire economy has tanked.

Back in September, the big losses at major banks and Wall Street firms were limited primarily to mortgages and mortgage-backed derivatives. That was bad enough. But it was just the beginning.

Now, due to the sinking economy, the stated value of virtually every asset on the books of every bank in America is highly questionable. Whether you call this a severe recession, a depression or just an economic free-fall, the value of almost every bank asset is greatly overstated.

Even back in September, it was virtually impossible for any government, even ours, to muster sufficient resources to save the nation’s megabanks. The banks were simply too big. There were too many of them in trouble. Their losses were too large; their capital deficits too deep.

Now, with the losses spreading and mounting, the idea that, somehow, the government can save them all has been carried beyond the threshold of absurdity. Now, we are near the end game — and the government is likely to lose.

Ask yourself these basic questions:

  • Can the U.S. government save two of the nation’s three largest megabanks — Citigroup and Bank of America — despite the worst asset quality in their history and the worst economic collapse in a half century?

  • Can the U.S. government save these two banks while nearly every major investment bank, including Merrill Lynch, has already collapsed?

  • Can it pull it off even as thousands of large and small retail companies, air transport firms, auto companies and others file for Chapter 11?

  • Can it engineer this feat even as Europe and Asia sink into an abyss?

If your answer to these questions is “no,” you’re at odds with virtually the entire Washington and Wall Street establishment, whether Republican or Democrat, whether in the old administration or the new one.

Strangely, though, if your answer is “yes,” you’re out of synch with a reality that’s abundantly obvious to any objective observer...


Η συνέχεια εδώ

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Systemic Economic Crisis: The Sequence of Global Insolvency Begins

Source: (GEAB) Global Research
In 2007, LEAP/E2020 announced that US banks and consumers were both insolvent. More than a year ago, our team estimated that USD 10,000-billion worth in « ghost-assets » would vanish in the crisis. Both announcements came in complete opposition with the common opinion of that time; however they proved perfectly justified in the months after. In the same line, LEAP/E2020 today estimates that a new sequence of the fourth phase (so-called « decanting phase ») of the unfolding global systemic crisis has began: the sequence of global insolvency.

The heavy consequences conveyed by the global insolvency are anticipated in this GEAB N°31, of which this announcement presents an excerpt meant to put clearly what is at stake in this new sequence of the crisis. GEAB N°31 also details the 20 "ups and downs" of the year 2009 according to the LEAP/E2020 team : fifteen upward trends and fourteen downward trends, as many decision- abnd analysis-support instruments for all those worried or intrigued by the coming year.

Contrary to what political leaders and their central bankers seem to believe worldwide, the problem of liquidity that they are striving to solve by means of historic interest rate drops and unlimited money creation, is not a cause but a consequence of the current crisis. It is in fact a problem of solvency which is digging « black holes » where liquidities disappear, whether we call these holes bank balance sheets (1), household debt (2), corporate bankruptcies or public deficits. In consideration of the fact that a conservative estimation of these “ghost-assets” reaches already USD 30,000-billion (3), our team considers that the world is now facing a situation of general insolvency affecting in the first place the most indebted countries and organizations (public or private) and/or those depending most on financial services.

Market capitalisation of stock markets worldwide (in trillions of US Dollars) - Source: Thomson financial Datastream, 01/2009
...

Η συνέχεια και εδώ: GEAB
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Saturday, January 17, 2009

Roubini: 'Synchronized Global Recession'

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Thursday, January 15, 2009

Τρισέ...


Τρισέ: Αποκλείεται να χρεοκοπήσει χώρα της ευρωζώνης
Ο κ.Ζαν Κλοντ Τρισέ δήλωσε την Πέμπτη ότι αποκλείει κάθε υπόθεση κίνδυνου χρεωκοπίας κράτους μέλους της ευρωζώνης.

Τρισέ: Αποκλείεται να χρεοκοπήσει χώρα της ευρωζώνης



Σημ: ok...
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Thursday, January 8, 2009

I need to be... subsidized

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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Gold vs Sterling...

Source: Money Week

 'Why you should hold on to gold'
By Dominic Frisby Jan 07, 2009
...If you look at how gold has traded vs sterling since Gordon Brown sold our gold, you will notice a distinct staircase pattern. It shoots up, then consolidates at the higher level, then shoots up.
Price of gold in sterling
...Based on this repeating pattern, since we have just had a sharp shot up – and this could continue for a short while longer - a period of consolidation is now likely, before the inevitable march to £1,000 an ounce and beyond. But I would not sell a flake of your physical gold yet. It is your insurance - if sterling implodes, you'll need it.

...When measured in gold, this is already the worst house price crash in history

I don't know if this sell-off in sterling has been orchestrated, but it suits the government. The economic downfall doesn't look nearly so bad measured in weakened sterling as it does in, say, dollars. House prices are down some 15-20% from the highs, depending whose figures you use, measured in sterling. But measured in gold, this is already the worst crash in history, as the chart below shows.

UK house prices in ounces of gold

What's more, this crash still has a lot further to go.

In this chart, having risen by the most, London prices look set to fall by the most:

UK, London & Scottish house prices in ounces of gold


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What is a Recession

Source: itulip.com

Recession, standard version: 



Recession, parody version:



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The Deal

Source: itulip.com



'China's political response to its first recession in 30 years will challenge the world in 2009 as rising global unemployment challenges governments world wide. Formerly cocky dictators and single party governments will have to reconsider strategies and alliances.'

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Looming Collapse of Russia, China and more …

By Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.   5 Jan 2009


Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.


I hope you’ve 


had a great start to your New Year!


At the same time, however, I trust you are not counting on the latest holiday rally in the stock market — or the most recent incarnation of the Obama rescue package — to transform 2009 into a positive year for the economy.


The reasons: In addition to the massive wealth destruction I told you about two weeks ago and the continuing debt collapse I’ve been warning you about for many months now, the overseas engines of global growth are also collapsing.


This does not negate my long-term view that certain overseas economies offer great future opportunities. But it does represent a major short-term threat to U.S. investors, U.S. companies and the U.S. economy as a whole.


The undeniable reality: The debt crisis that first appeared in the U.S. subprime mortgage market … then precipitated a Wall Street meltdown … and has now driven the American economy into its sharpest decline since the Great Depression … has now spread to the entire world.


It is driving the economies of Western Europe and Japan into an unprecedented tailspin. It threatens the economic — and potentially political — stability of Russia, China and several emerging market nations. And it’s setting the stage for a global depression of epic dimensions.


Here are some of the most vulnerable major economies …


Russia Smashed by Oil Price Collapse

Never in modern history has the success or failure of a major emerging economy been so dependent on one single commodity! And never before has that commodity fallen so far and so fast as Russian crude oil!


Russia does have other resource and revenue sources. But in just the past six months, Urals crude, Russia’s primary export blend, has plunged from a high of nearly $141 per barrel to a low of a meager $32.34 — a 77% crash that’s pounded Russian stocks like a sledgehammer and sliced through the Russian economy like a serrated sickle.


The big dilemma: To balance its federal budget, Russia must get a minimum of $70 per barrel for its crude oil. But at $32 and change, it’s getting less than HALF that amount. The entire country is losing money hand over fist.


No wonder Russia’s stock market has plunged 72%, forcing 25 separate stock exchange shutdowns!

Transneft, the Russian oil transporter, is down from $2,025 in January 2008 to a recent low of $270. Gazprom, the natural gas monopoly, has lost more than two-thirds of its market capitalization since May. Meanwhile, Lukoil fell from a May peak of $113 to a recent low of $32.


Russia’s oil-driven real estate bubble is also collapsing. That’s why Russian construction and real estate giant Sistema-Hals lost more than 94% of its value last year alone … why PIK Group, another major construction giant, collapsed by 96% … and why the entire RCP Shares Index of Russian developers has sunk 92% since its record high in June 2007.


Ford, Renault and Volkswagen are halting production at Russian assembly lines. Unemployment is likely to surge to 10% and beyond. Massive amounts of foreign capital are fleeing the country.


In a desperate attempt to stem the tide, the Russian government has devalued the ruble 11 times since November, and thrown a quarter of its foreign currency reserves at the raging debt crisis. But it’s still not enough. Russia’s primary source of revenues — energy exports — is in shambles; and unless crude oil prices could somehow DOUBLE in a big hurry, Russia’s economic and financial decline cannot end.


Standard & Poor’s has cut Russia’s long-term debt rating for the first time in nine years, citing dangerous outflows and a “rapid depletion” of currency reserves. And more downgrades are in the offing. Even a major debt default is not unthinkable.


The biggest danger: Political upheaval and social unrest.


Even before this crisis, Russia’s middle class earned less than $500 per month. Now, with the devastating plunge in oil revenues already in place, those numbers are falling to even lower levels. For a nation with a cost of living that rivals that of the U.S., Western Europe and Japan, the last thing the Russian people needed was a depression. Yet that’s exactly what they’re getting.


I visited Russia last year before the collapse in oil prices. I spoke to a variety of professionals and people on the street. And I stayed with friends who work in government jobs.


From everything I had read, I had anticipated signs of greater prosperity. Instead, I was surprised to see how little average citizens had benefited from the recent years of rapid economic growth.


Yes, they have more access to a wider variety of goods that were scarce during the Soviet era. But most professionals — such as teachers, doctors, nurses and government employees — are still living on the edge of poverty.


Equally surprising is the popular disgust and disdain for the government. Public opinion surveys and press reports may indicate broad support for the Kremlin’s foreign policy, and they seem to be accurate. But support for domestic policies is another matter entirely.


My view: Any major disappointment with respect to pocketbook issues could lead to major political changes, the outcome of which is largely unpredictable.


China Far More Vulnerable Than Expected

China’s extraordinary expansion of the past decade fueled booms in global trade, commodities and emerging markets. It was a major growth engine that turbo-charged Australia, Brazil, Southeast Asia and even Japan.


Now, however, that engine is grinding to a screeching halt. Indeed, when historians look back to major pivot points of this global economic crisis, they will undoubtedly point to the abrupt end of China’s boom.

Many of us assumed that because China’s economy was growing so quickly — at a breakneck pace of 10% or more per year — it could easily afford to slow down by a few percentage points and still be in far better shape than most other economies.


But now I seriously question that theory. Indeed, more often than not, companies, industries and entire nations that enjoy the biggest booms are also vulnerable to some of the biggest busts. Instead of a mere slowdown, as many still seem to expect, China’s economy could suffer a wholesale collapse.


Exports, which still represent two-fifths of the Chinese economy, are already sinking fast. And the domestic economy, much of which depends directly or indirectly on the revenues flowing from exports, is also beginning to sink.


Warning signs are everywhere: Stocks, down 60% just in the last 12 months; imports, down 17.9% in November alone; foreign investments to China, off 36.5% last year.


In response, the government has slashed interest rates and pledged a $582 billion stimulus package. But that’s mere pocket change compared to China’s trillions in vulnerable exports. Moreover, it has done little to help millions of small- and medium-sized businesses which are already shutting down and laying off millions.


A big problem: 45% of the Chinese government bailout is earmarked for the cement and housing industry. Meanwhile, cash-flow problems are sweeping through the entire economy, downing airlines, manufacturers and property companies.


Airlines like China Southern and China Eastern, for example, have been losing money hand over fist. China’s auto sales are plunging. Its shipbuilding industry is in a tailspin. And its real estate market is collapsing.


Next, expect surging unemployment … mass reverse migrations from urban centers to the countryside … spreading popular unrest … and a major challenge to authority. Chinese leaders have already admitted that an economic downturn would test their ability to govern. Now, that downturn is here — and the ultimate test, on the near horizon.


Meanwhile …


India, also heavily dependent on foreign demand for its goods, is suffering its worst export slump in recent memory. Overseas shipments plunged 12.1% in October and another 9.9% in November, forcing companies like Tata Motors, India’s biggest truck maker, and Hyundai Motor to cut output, fire workers and shut down factories.


Brazil, which was growing at a record pace until the third quarter, has suddenly frozen in its tracks. Much of the foreign money it counted on has vanished, leaving acute capital shortages in its wake. Auto sales have gone dead, leaving biggest-ever inventories of unsold cars. Credit, abundantly available just a few months ago, is now gone.


Japan has been slammed by its worst recession since World War II … with stock prices plunging to new 18-year lows … industrial output suffering the largest monthly drop since records were kept … Toyota reporting its first loss in 70 years … layoff victims filling tent parks … and worse.


Everywhere from Argentina and Mexico to Australia, New Zealand and even the once-rich Middle East, the worldwide debt crisis, the bust in commodities and the sharp slowdown in global trade are transforming massive booms into instant recessions.


It’s happening fast and it’s accelerating. Government rescue programs aren’t nearly enough to turn the tide. And it’s another key reason you must approach 2009 with great caution.


Stick with safety. Don’t veer from the course I have laid out for avoiding the dangers. Wait for the truly big price declines ahead before reinvesting!


Good luck and God bless!


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Friday, January 2, 2009

Full-reserve banking (100% money)

Full-reserve banking is the banking practice in which the full amount of each depositor'sfunds are available in reserve (as cash or other highly liquid assets) when each depositor had the legal right to withdraw them. Full-reserve banking was practiced historically by theBank of Amsterdam and some other early banks but was displaced by fractional reserve banking after 1800.[citation needed] Proposals for the restoration of full-reserve banking have been made, but are generally ignored or dismissed by mainstream economists.

 

The case for full reserve

This would eliminate (or at least greatly reduce) the financial risks associated with bank runs, as the bank would have all the money in reserve needed to pay depositors - regardless whether depositors actually claimed their money.[6][7][5]

This form of banking would also eliminate the need for a lender of last resort (such as acentral bank), which is normally needed to support the banking system in times ofsystemic risk or financial contagion, as these financial risks would not exist in a full-reserve banking environment.[8]

This simply requires that the resources available to the banks issuing credit money and demand deposits would be sufficient to convert all currency at once if so required. It was a central component in Social Credit proposals.[9]

Because fractional-reserve banking necessarily increases in the money supply and causesmonetary inflation, some economists (most notably the Austrian School) consider this aspect of fractional-reserve banking to have deliterious and destabilizing effects on the economy over time.[10][11][5][12]

It is argued by these economists that, in contrast to fractional-reserve banking, full-reserve banking guarantees a stable money supply, which ensures that the means of exchange is not debased over time. This improves the efficiency of the price mechanism, promotes saving and the deferral of consumption, provides much greater confidence in the financial system and in the integrity of all commercial transactions and therefore encourages sustainable, non-speculative productive investment...

 

The great depression in Irving Fisher's thought download pdf

...In essence, if not adequately countered by the monetary authorities, the deflationary process will set in motion a perverse, self-fueling spiral bound to cause “almost universal bankruptcy” (Fisher, 1932a, 1933a).

...Fisher realised that the open market operations promoted by the Federal Reserve had been only partially successful. His response was to promote a radical revision of the credit system, based on the abolition of fractional reserves (Allen, 1993). With this method, wrote Fisher, the “circulating medium” was in fact simply a by-product of the private debt, and monetary policy was unpredictable: an increase of the monetary base could bring about a sustained inflation or be almost ineffective (Fisher, 1936a, p. 105). This latter was exactly what had happened during the Depression: for fear of

bankruptcy, banks had used most of the liquidity obtained from the Fed to inflate their own reserves. If the situation improved, these excess reserves could fuel a surge in

inflation.22 These dangers could have been avoided by requiring the banks to hold reserves equal to their demand liabilities (so-called “100% money”)23. In this way, financial

institutions’ lending function would be clearly separated from that of money creation. The central bank would thus gain full control over the money supply. Even in this case, however, monetary policy could only be effective if the velocity of money and of the demand deposits (V and V’) were stable...

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