Focus on Economy : December 2007

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Only Gold Can Beat the Credit Crunch

So what? Who cares about Wall Street, economists, or politicians? Individual investors,
business owners, workers, fathers, mothers, and college students, they are the
ones who must survive if the United States is to survive the mounting credit
collapse more or less intact. Why worry about those who caused the mess?
The point is that Wall Street or US politicians cannot and will not save investors.
They are not concerned with investors, only with themselves. Investors must save
their own little selves - and the only way to do that is by jettisoning the
world of contracts, paper, and electronic currency blips.

Ironically, inflation fears are what propelled the dollar up from its
recent downward course, tracing the bottom of its 50 day moving average. Even
more ironically, the very same thing now threatens to become the undoing of this
attempted bounce. Why?
...

Chute drastique de la construction résidentielle aux États-Unis

Source: Les affaires.com

"La construction résidentielle a chuté de 3,7% au mois de novembre aux
États-Unis. Ce sont les mises en chantier de maisons individuelles qui ont
accusé la plus forte baisse pour se situer au niveau le plus bas depuis 16
ans."
"Les perspectives pour les prochains mois ne sont guère plus encourageantes."

The consensus is moving from the soft vs. hard landing debate towards how severe the hard landing will be

Source: Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

"While a few months ago analysts were still heatedly debating whether the US would experience a soft landing or a hard landing (a recession) the center of the macro debate has now clearly shifted away from soft landing versus hard landing discussion to a recognition that a hard landing is the most likely scenario; thus, increasingly now the debate is on how deep and severe the forthcoming hard landing will be..."

Dollar

Source: SafeHaven

"The dollar is still the worlds reserve currency and no mater what the world wants to do they cannot simply dump their dollar holdings and move into other currencies. First of all if they were to do this it would provide a "screaming buy opportunity" to make a fortune but this is not going to happen so we wont waste time looking at it..."

"...In the short term it's possible that the precious metal sector might take a small hit due to the dollar rallying. If this happens we would view it as a buying opportunity and not one to run from. Long term we feel that the entire commodities sector will start to stand on its own feet and not on the so called dead feet of the dollar. Its demand that's going to drive these markets and not a weak dollar and demand is unlikely to fall anytime soon."

America faces day of reckoning with debt

Source: Telegraph.co.uk

For now, the consensus view is that sub-prime losses will total $500bn and crimp lending by $2 trillion as bank multiples kick into reverse.

This assumes there are no more shoes to drop. Yet shoes are dangling precariously across the global credit system. We may soon have to add the terms HELOCs and "monoline insurers" to our crunch lexicon.

Le capitalisme nous prend pour des enfants… que nous sommes devenus

Source: Marianne

"Ce capitalisme inédit soumet les hommes à un « éthos infantiliste ». D'abord, nous dit l'auteur, les habitants des pays occidentaux vieillissent par l'âge mais rajeunissent par le comportement, le style et la mentalité. A côté de quoi les nouveaux « sophistes du marketing » jugent que pour faire régner le capitalisme consumériste, il faut rendre les consommateurs enfantins. Il résulte de ces dynamiques une infantilisation des adultes et une transformation des enfants en consommateurs en culottes courtes."

Ian Gordon - Kondratieff Update - AUDIO

Source Audio: HoweStreet.com

1. Corrupt Banking System - Cartels Robbing the Public

What's a US Dollar Worth? : The Fed, Money as Debt

The global economy is exposed to America's houses of cards

Source: The Daily Star

"There are times when being proven right brings no pleasure. For several years I have argued that America's economy was being supported by a housing bubble that had replaced the stock market bubble of the 1990s. But no bubble can expand forever. With middle-class incomes in the United States stagnating, Americans could not afford ever more expensive homes."

"Economists, as opposed to those who make their living gambling on stocks, make no claim to being able to predict when the day of reckoning will come, much less identifying the event that will bring down the house of cards. But the patterns are systematic, with consequences that unfold gradually, and painfully, over time..."

The Mortgage Mess

Source: Townhall.com

"Like obnoxious relatives, the mortgage mess won’t go away. Some two million adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) will reset over the next two years, and analysts say that within the coming year alone, $362 billion in subprime home mortgages will experience rising interest rates. This will lead to ever more payment defaults and foreclosures, a horrible state of affairs not only for the affected homeowners and lenders, but also for the financial markets in general..."

H μεγαλύτερη φούσκα της Ιστορίας...

Source: Kathimerini

Της Ζέτα Ζήκου

"Πυροτεχνήματα Μπους για τη μεγαλύτερη φούσκα της Ιστορίας..."

"Ποτέ ξανά δεν είχε σημειωθεί στις ΗΠΑ τόσο μεγάλη άνοδος των τιμών των ακινήτων,
για μια τόσο μακρά χρονική περίοδο. Ούτε, όμως, σε ολόκληρο τον κόσμο. Oι αγορές
ακινήτων απογειώθηκαν στα ουράνια τα τελευταία χρόνια. Φυσικά, το μπουμ στην
αγορά κατοικίας της Αμερικής συνέβαλε καθοριστικά στην ανόρθωση της παγκόσμιας
οικονομίας μετά το σκάσιμο της χρηματιστηριακής φούσκας, το 2000. Το μπουμ αυτό
δεν ισοπέδωσε, μόνον, τα προηγούμενα ράλι αλλά ξεπέρασε την παγκόσμια φούσκα των
χρηματιστηρίων στα τέλη της δεκαετίας του ’90 (που αντιστοιχούσε στο 80% του
AEΠ) ή τη φούσκα του αμερικανικού χρηματιστηρίου της δεκαετίας του ’20 (ίση με
το 55% του AEΠ). Mε άλλα λόγια, εξελίχθηκε στην μεγαλύτερη φούσκα της Ιστορίας!"
"...Τα στεγαστικά αυτά δάνεια –τοκογλυφικά δηλαδή, με υψηλότερο επιτόκιο έναντι της
κύριας αγοράς στεγαστικής πίστης– είτε σε φτωχούς είτε σε απατεώνες που δεν
μπορούσαν να εξασφαλίσουν δάνεια από την κύρια αγορά, δεν αποτελούν απλώς τον
άρρωστο τομέα της χρηματοδότησης της αγοράς κατοικίας, αλλά εξελίσσονται σε
εφιάλτη..."

La fin du dollar roi

Source: Le Monde

"Le recul du dollar va-t-il s'accélérer et échapper à tout contrôle ?
L'euro, aspiré comme un ballon, va-t-il monter sans limite à 1,55 ? 1,60 ? 1,70
? Plus ? Comme le titrait l'hebdomadaire britannique The Economist la semaine
passée, ce scénario noir flanque "la panique" dans les milieux financiers. Le
krach du dollar n'est pas l'hypothèse la plus probable, mais elle n'est plus
regardée comme impossible..."

The Shock of a Thousand Trillions - by The Mogambo Guru

Source: Safe Haven

"So
imagine my horror when I learned that there was no error! We are talking about a
quadrillion freaking dollars! Instantly I knew that she was doing that on
purpose to give me a heart attack!"

"A joke that does not make fun
of people so damned stupid that they have no clue of what the last 4,000 years
of economics and gold says about why they should be buying gold with both
hands with every penny at
their disposal..."

Now, things are so bad that a reader at Felix Salmon's
Market Movers blog is moved to darkly say, "Gold is for optimists. I'm
diversifying into canned goods." Hahaha! Gold is for
optimists! Hahaha!

...

Subprime : le FBI s’en mêle

Source: Le Figaro

"Surévaluation de biens immobiliers, mensonges sur les revenus des
emprunteurs, défaut d’information : la police fédérale traque les abus des
années dorées..."

subprime derivatives

Subprime Derivatives: industry horror and nightmare stories and tales...

La Crise Financière expliquée

La Crise Financière expliquée
Video sent by robertofiorini

La crise expliquée par le patron de la BNP

This is it! - Ian Gordon, The long wave analyst (Kondratieff cycle)

Source: The long wave analyst

This is it. The Kondratieff winter is now underway in earnest and nothing can stop it. The huge credit expansion initiated by the Maestro, the past Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, has now reversed. The ensuing credit contraction will be devastating. It will take down creditor and debtor alike and will result in a destructive and frightening deflationary depression...

Favourite analyst...

"Le président américain George W. Bush va dévoiler jeudi un plan d'aide aux ménages étranglés par leur prêt immobilier, pour prévenir une vague de saisies de logements qui pourrait être désastreuse pour l'économie..."

"Le plan de la Maison-Blanche vise les emprunteurs les plus fragiles financièrement, qui ont souvent contracté des prêts "subprime", sur 30 ans, prévoyant des taux alléchants les deux premières années, avant une remontée brutale pendant les 28 années suivantes..."

Détricotage et code du travail

Source: Marianne

"Alors que les députés ont passé la nuit de lundi à s'écharper sur le projet de loi visant au « détricotage » du code du travail, Gérard Filoche, inspecteur du travail, syndicaliste (CGT) et militant socialiste, explique les dangers du nouveau texte..."

Here Comes Another Bubble - The Richter Scales

Faire chuter l'euro ou oublier l'industrie

Source: Marianne

"Deux fleurons de l'industrie aéronautique européenne, Dassault aviation et EADS, ont annoncé leur intention de délocaliser une partie de leur production soit en zone dollar, soit en zone « à bas prix ». Motif : la hausse de l'euro qui tue la compétitivité des productions. Au plus bas, l'euro valait moins d'un dollar (85% exactement), aujourd'hui il en vaut 1,50. Pratiquement, les prix des objets facturés en dollars ont été divisés par deux par rapport à ceux facturés en euros. Or les avions sont facturés en dollars et construits en euros..."

...facturés en dollar et construits en euros.

Oups... (The name of the game)

Oups 1:

Florida Just First to Face National Run on the Bank

"The pool, which is where most of the state's municipalities put their money when they are not using it, owns $1.5 billion in securities that have been downgraded or defaulted as a result of the subprime market collapse.

In freezing the pool, Coleman Stipanovich, executive director of the board, said, ``If we don't do something quickly, we're not going to have an investment pool.''

The state stopped the clock.

The same clock is ticking for every state in the country where school districts and cities and towns put their faith in someone else, usually at the county or state level, to manage their money..."

Oups 2:

Lenders 'must prepare for worst'

"UK mortgage lenders have to prepare for the "very real prospect" of the global credit crunch getting much worse.
The Financial Services Authority (FSA), said a tougher global financial situation could affect the whole UK mortgage market, boosting defaults.

Access to cash could become more difficult - a problem that caused the run on Northern Rock earlier this year..."

Krugman : les banques sont devenues folles (traduction)

"Qu’ont-ils fumé ?"c’est la question qui est posée en couverture du dernier magazine Fortune, accompagnée de photos de dirigeants de grandes banques récemment remerciés, et du montant de leurs énormes pertes..."
"En fait, l’effondrement de Wall Street provient directement du grand plongeon de l’immobilier. Ce plongeon était prévisible et avait été prévu. J’avais écrit dès le mois d’août 2005 « Les américains se logent dans des maisons payées avec de l’argent emprunté aux Chinois... ».
...

Le piège du dollar

Le Figaro

La chute du dollar réjouit ceux qui y voient la traduction monétaire du déclin de l’hégémonie américaine. Ils ont tort ! Et ils devraient s’inquiéter de se retrouver dans le même camp que le président iranien Ahmadinejad, pour qui le billet vert ne serait plus qu’un «bout de papier sans valeur»...

Remarque: Ah, bon... Si on ne parle pas de "papier sans valeur" ou de "toilet paper", on parle alors de quoi? Dans le "même camp" ne se trouve pas seulement le président iranien, mais tout le globe, à mon humble avis... 'Helicopter' Ben a bien travaillé sur ce projet (et Greenspan encore plus...).

...

Mais la dévalorisation du dollar reflète aussi et surtout un mal plus profond. Notre planète économique est déréglée.

Remarque: totalement.

Lire l'article

Le Figaro

Des expropriations, suivies par des ventes bradées, pourraient déstabiliser le marché immobilier du pays
Plus de 5,5 millions de ménages vont avoir du mal à rembourser leur crédit immobilier"

"Parti des États-Unis, le crédit « crunch » pourrait jeter dans l’enfer du surendettement un tiers des souscripteurs de prêt immobilier. Soit 5,5 millions de Britanniques !..."

L' article

Minsky... moment?

Μήπως είμαστε σε ένα Minsky moment? :

"Minsky moment is the point in a market cycle when investors have cash flow problems due to spiraling debt they have incurred in order to finance speculative investments. At this point, a major selloff begins, leading to a collapse of asset values. Named after economist Hyman Minsky, the Minsky moment comes after a long period of prosperity and increasing values of investments, which has encouraged increasing amounts of speculation using borrowed money"

At its core, the Minsky view was straightforward: When times are good, investors take on risk; the longer times stay good, the more risk they take on, until they've taken on too much. Eventually, they reach a point where the cash generated by their assets no longer is sufficient to pay off the mountains of debt they took on to acquire them. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. "This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values," Mr. Minsky wrote.
When investors are forced to sell even their less-speculative positions to make good on their loans, markets spiral lower and create a severe demand for cash [that can force central bankers to lend a hand]. At that point, the Minsky moment has arrived.

Το 2008 θα δείξει σίγουρα...

Υφεση με ενδείξεις «κορεσμού» εμφανίζει την τελευταία διετία η αγορά κατοικίας, με κύριο χαρακτηριστικό τη σημαντική αύξηση της προσφοράς με παράλληλη μείωση της ζήτησης.

Σύμφωνα με όσα αναφέρθηκαν στις εκδηλώσεις του Money Show Θεσσαλονίκης την τελευταία 12ετία, το «στοκ» (απούλητων) κατοικιών αυξήθηκε πανελλαδικά 17,7% (επίπεδο ρεκόρ), η δε ανέγερση το 2006 και το 2007 336.000 νέων κατοικιών (130.000 - 140.000 στη Θεσσαλονίκη) μεγιστοποίησαν το πρόβλημα.

Στο διάστημα 2001 - 2006 οι τιμές οδηγήθηκαν κατά μέσο όρο στο 7,5% έναντι 16% στην Ισπανία και 13% στην Ιρλανδία.

...

Ο πρόεδρος της Ενωσης Φοροτεχνικών Β. Ελλάδας, Ιωάννης Τύρης, χαρακτήρισε την οικοδομική δραστηριότητα «θύμα φορολογικής επιδρομής και εύκολο τρόπο αύξησης των δημόσιων εσόδων...»

Όλο το άρθρο: http://www.enet.gr/online/online_text/c=114,id=28268648

It's too late to stop the housing crash

03.12.2007

'This feature is part of our FREE daily Money Morning email. If you'd like to sign up, please click here:Sign up for Money Morning
The Bank of England is set to decide on interest rates this Thursday.
It should be one of the most lively meetings they’ve had recently. Governor Mervyn King is clearly still trying to fight the good fight against inflation. And with oil prices still near $100 a barrel, who can blame him?
But others are getting edgy. David Blanchflower wants a cut (as always), but so does Sir John Gieve. As Liam Halligan said in this weekend’s Telegraph, there’s a strong possibility that the governor might be outvoted, and we’ll see a December cut.
Not that it’ll make any difference to the housing market…
At the weekend, the Express, ever the master of understatement, ran the headline “100 days to halt housing crash”. Ray Boulger of mortgage broker John Charcol warns that if the bank doesn’t start cutting rates by February, “any small early-year blip could spiral into a full-blown property crash...”

...

Όλο το άρθρο

The panic about the dollar

A full-blown dollar collapse would be disastrous. Thankfully, it need not happen

'Facebook' : c'est aussi une web story...

Cartoon - Newropeans Magazine

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Monday, December 10, 2007

Sunday, December 9, 2007

Saturday, December 8, 2007

Friday, December 7, 2007

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Source: LEXPRESS.fr

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Monday, December 3, 2007

Sunday, December 2, 2007